By May, the Australian sporting landscape is a beast you can’t ignore. The AFL season has rolled through enough rounds to expose the pretenders from the contenders, while the NRL is reaching peak intensity just as the Origin furnace is being lit. This is the month when casual punters rely on pre-game bets, but smart money shifts focus: player props.
Betting on individual player performances removes the chaos of the final scoreboard, focusing instead on a single athlete’s output in a defined market. Whether it’s a midfielder hunting the footy in the AFL or a try-scoring winger carving up a depleted edge in the NRL, there are bets to be made on your knowledge of the game.
Let’s dissect the top player props for the month, from the disposal kings of the AFL to the four-point machines of the NRL, right through to the State of Origin debutants set to make their mark.
The Pro Punter’s Edge: Why Player Props in May?
The AFL hits the run of its mid-season grind in May, with player roles now firmly fixed. The elite ball-winners have established their scoring floors, while the goalkicking hierarchy atop the Coleman Medal leaderboard is taking shape—Ben King leads the pack early in the season with 16 goals through Round 3 historically, while Jack Gunston (13) and Nick Larkey (11) are close behind.
In the NRL, Round 11 typically kicks off the first major wave of State of Origin team announcements. Players lift; some flat-track their way to a Dally M Medal, while others lose their club form under the weight of representative distractions. Correlating the stats reveals where the value lies.
AFL Player Props: The Disposal Machines and the Sharp Shooters
Disposals and Brownlow Contenders: Betting on the Midfield Engines
Midfielders who find the footy at will are the lifeblood of AFL props. According to Footywire, the league’s top disposal gatherers in 2026 include familiar names: Nick Daicos (Magpies) leads with an average of 36 disposals per game, closely followed by Harry Sheezel (Kangaroos) at 32.83 and Bailey Smith (Cats) at 32.33. When assessing prop markets, Nick Daicos’ “Over 30+ disposals” is a reliable play—and expect to see him in the Brownlow Medal votes, as he’s currently the Brownlow favourite with many tipping him to win the award, including Rohan Connolly, Jarryd Barca, and Christian Joly.
After a breakthrough 2025, Jai Newcombe enters 2026 as Hawthorn’s co-captain with a career-year that saw him average 22.4 disposals, 5.9 clearances, and 5.1 tackles, and his inside game could get him in the Brownlow conversation. Marcus Bontempelli is another name being widely tipped by the experts for the Brownlow, including by Jake Michaels and Gemma Bastiani, making his “Over 25+ disposals” market worth watching.
To find value, look for midfielders who accumulate high uncontested marks and effective disposals. Jack Sinclair (Saints) leads effective disposals with 26.83 per game, while Clayton Oliver (Giants) is right behind at 24.67. This is a strong indicator that they will regularly feature in the “Over 25 disposals” market.
Coleman Medal Leaders: The Art of Goal Scoring
The smartest punter doesn’t just back a winner—they back a goalkicker in a mismatch. From his early-season form, Ben King (GC), Sam Darcy (WB), and Charlie Curnow (Carlton) are projected to be among the leading contenders for the Coleman Medal. A disciplined “anytime goal scorer” bet on them is solid, but the value play is on the “2+ or 4+ goals” market when they are playing against a bottom-six side with a weak defensive record.
NRL Player Props: The Run Metres and The Four-Pointers
Dally M Favourites: Try-Scorers and Point Machines
The NRL is a try-scoring paradise for punters who know their wingers. Tom Jenkins has come out white-hot in 2026 with 12 tries, leading the top-30 try scorers on a dominant Penrith team that has scored a massive +150 points differential in their opening five games. Betting on Jenkins to score an anytime try is a strong play given his current form. Similarly, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is a solid option in the try-scorers market, having scored 9 tries in his last 12 games against the Titans at an anytime try-scorer price around $2.30.
Look for forwards who dominate run metres. Jackson Ford from the Warriors has been a revelation in 2026, charging to the front of the Dally M Medal count by averaging a massive 39 tackles at 93.8% efficiency and 182 run metres per game. He’s consistently overs on his “Over 150 run metres” line.
However, some of the biggest-name contenders are a different story, with experts like Corey Parker predicting that Roosters halfback Sam Walker, who won the 2021 Dally M Rookie of the Year, will secure the game’s highest individual honour this season. Other top picks include Mitch Moses, chosen by several experts, Isaiya Katoa, and Tom Trbojevic. Given his current form, Walker’s “Over 3.5 Goals” or “Most Points” options are prime mid-season plays.
Origin Auditions and Milestone Plays
By May, the talk of the town is State of Origin. With Payne Haas suffering a brutal Grade 3 MCL sprain expected to sideline him for 6-8 weeks, the door for a NSW Blues debut has swung wide open. Laurie Daley must fill that hole, and his choice directly shapes the Round 11 and 12 NRL props. If Daley goes with Jackson Ford, every prop bet on Ford—run metres, tackles, or even a sneaky “first try scorer”—becomes a value play right before Origin selections thin the club rosters.
The biggest move for punters to track is that Payne Haas’ replacement will most likely be one of Jackson Ford (Warriors) or Lindsay Smith (Panthers). Smith, a two-time premiership winner, is a key piece in the best defensive side in the competition however is yet to make his Origin debut. Meanwhile, Blues veteran Mitch Barnett made a miraculous return from an ACL injury last year, breaking his thumb in Round 4, and has since made a solid return, playing 44 minutes from the bench in Round 6— and he starred in the Game 1 victory last year before the injury ruling him out. Follow his minutes closely.
May Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
| League | Prop Category & Market | Player & Best Play |
|---|---|---|
| AFL | Disposals – Over 30+ | Nick Daicos, Harry Sheezel, Bailey Smith, Jai Newcombe |
| AFL | Goals – 3+ Coleman H2H | Ben King, Sam Darcy, Charlie Curnow vs. bottom-six defences |
| AFL | Brownlow Vote – 3 Votes H2H | Marcus Bontempelli, Zak Butters, Jai Newcombe in matchups where their team is favoured |
| NRL | Try Scorer – Anytime | Tom Jenkins (Panthers), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) |
| NRL | Try Scorer – 2+ Tries | Brian To’o, Alex Johnston in matchups against bottom-eight defences |
| NRL | Run Metres – Over 150+ | Jackson Ford (Warriors), Lindsay Smith (Panthers) |
| NRL | Dally M Vote – 3 Votes H2H | Sam Walker (Roosters), Mitch Moses (Eels), Isaiya Katoa (Dolphins) |
| Origin | Debutant Special – To Play Game 1 | Jackson Ford (NSW) or Lindsay Smith (NSW) |
| Origin | To Start – Forward Pack | Mitch Barnett if he continues his recovery following a thumb injury and ACL return |
The Final Whistle: Player Props Reward the Informed
Whether you’re an AFL fanatic or an NRL diehard, May offers a sweet spot for player prop betting. You have enough data to see trends, but not so much that the value is sucked out of the market by the spring.
For every battle across the middle of the ground or every soaring winger crossing in the corner, there’s a prop bet to complement the action. Back the players you know, track the milestones and injuries, and bet smart.
Bet on the Best AFL and NRL Player Props with Top Betting Australia!
Mid-season form across the AFL and NRL is creating massive value in the player prop markets, and there’s no better place to find the top odds than Top Betting Australia. Whether you’re backing Nick Daicos to rack up 35 disposals, snagging a juicy price on an Origin debutant, or riding the hot hand of a try-scoring machine, we’ve got the sharpest lines, Same Game Multis, and live in-play specials for the biggest games in May.
Get on board today, claim your exclusive mid-season odds boost, and start building your winning prop bets. Sign up with Top Betting Australia now—where the footy knowledge is on your side. Gamble responsibly.