We’re heading into the business end of the 2025 AFL season, and by Round 16, the ladder is starting to take shape. With finals spots on the line, punters are turning a sharper eye to form trends, injury lists, and momentum shifts.
Whether you’re building multis or targeting margins, here are your key AFL betting tips for Round 16, along with teams heating up, bookie odds to watch, and value markets flying under the radar.
🔥 Who’s Hot Heading Into Round 16?
Carlton Blues – Form Surge and Confidence Building
The Blues have won 5 of their last 6 and are starting to look like a real top-four threat. Their midfield — led by Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps — has been dominant in contested ball. Look for value in disposals and inside-50s markets.
Betting Edge: Carlton as line favourites, or multis including first-quarter winners. They’ve started hot in recent weeks.
Brisbane Lions – Dominating at Home
Brisbane remain tough to beat at the Gabba and have found form after a mid-season wobble. Joe Daniher is back among the goals, and Lachie Neale is hitting his stride in clearances.
Betting Edge: Look for goal scorer markets with Daniher and Hipwood, plus team total points overs in home fixtures.
GWS Giants – Quietly Building Momentum
GWS have strung together strong performances, especially against mid-table teams. Their pressure around the ball and transition speed are putting teams on the back foot.
Betting Edge: Underdog value — the Giants are often priced longer than their form deserves, especially in head-to-head bets.
📉 Who’s Struggling?
West Coast Eagles – Still Lacking Consistency
Despite a few competitive showings, the Eagles have yet to string four quarters together. Injuries and a lack of midfield depth continue to hurt.
Avoid: Line bets or margin spreads in their favour. Even when competitive early, they fade late.
Essendon Bombers – Midfield Gaps Showing
The Bombers are facing injury issues through the middle and struggling to win contested ball. Without key playmakers, they’re losing inside-50 counts badly.
Punters Tip: Opposing teams’ midfield props (disposals, clearances) offer solid value.
🧠 Smart AFL Bets to Consider for Round 16
- Multis with high-possession mids: Look at Sam Walsh, Josh Dunkley, or Errol Gulden for 25+ disposals.
- Quarter-by-quarter betting: Some teams (e.g., Carlton, Melbourne) start fast and fade; others close strong (e.g., Collingwood).
- Underdog margin plays: GWS and Sydney may be undervalued in tight matchups — backing them +1–39 could pay.
🏟️ Big Match of the Round: Collingwood vs Melbourne
This top-tier clash is one of the round’s headline events. Both sides are finals contenders and bring heavy-hitting midfields.
- Form Tip: Collingwood are 4–1 in night games this season.
- Betting Angle: Look at unders on total score — both clubs have defensive structure and slow build-up games.
✅ Round 16 AFL Betting Tips Summary
| Team | In Form? | Betting Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | ✅ | First quarter winner, line favourites |
| Brisbane | ✅ | Home team overs, goal scorers |
| GWS | ✅ | H2H value, margin +1–39 |
| West Coast | ❌ | Avoid backing line or late-game bets |
| Essendon | ❌ | Target opponents’ mids in props |
Final Word: Momentum Is Everything in Round 16
With finals on the horizon, Round 16 is packed with opportunity — especially for punters who can read form, spot weakness, and target value markets.
Now’s the time to back in-form clubs, avoid overrated favourites, and build smarter multis based on quarter trends, matchups, and team injuries.
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