G’day, cricket fans and punters!
There’s nothing quite like an Ashes series on home soil. The heat bouncing off the Gabba, the roar of the MCG on Boxing Day, the pink-ball drama under the Adelaide lights—it’s the pinnacle of Test cricket. And for savvy punters, it’s a five-Test bonanza of thrilling betting opportunities.
The old enemy is coming back down under, and after a thrillingly close series in the UK in 2023, the 2025-26 Ashes is shaping up to be an absolute blockbuster. Whether you’re a seasoned stats man or just looking to add a bit of extra spice to the viewing, this guide is for you.
We’re breaking down the key stats, analysing the early odds, and looking at some smoky value picks for the Australian squad. Let’s get stuck in.
The Lay of the Land: Why Betting at Home is a Bonzer Idea
Let’s start with the most important stat for any Aussie punter: Australia has not lost a home Ashes series since 2010-11. The fortress of Australian pitches, with their pace, bounce, and tendency to favour our world-class attack, has been a house of horrors for England for over a decade.
While “Bazball” has revolutionised England’s approach, its success against a full-strength Australian attack in our conditions remains completely unproven. The early evidence suggests our bowlers relish the extra bounce and can exploit the aggressive mindset of the English batters.
This home-ground advantage is the single biggest factor to consider when placing any futures bet for the 2025-26 series.
Key Stats for the Astute Punter
Before you place a bet, arm yourself with the numbers. History often rhymes in Test cricket.
- Series Result: Australia has won 4 of the last 5 home Ashes series.
- The Gabba Fortress: Australia hasn’t lost a Test at the Gabba since 1988. The first Test is often a tone-setter.
- The Warner Factor at the MCG: While David Warner has now retired, his record exemplified a trend: openers who get in at the MCG can score big. Look for who replaces him to be a key player.
- Nathan Lyon’s Tally: Nathan Lyon is a menace at home. He needs just a handful of wickets to become the first bowler to take 150 Ashes wickets on home soil. He will be licking his lips at the prospect of bowling to a team that loves to use their feet.
- The Captain’s Knock: Pat Cummins’s leadership record at home is phenomenal. His tactical nous in Australian conditions is a huge asset.
Early Bird Odds: What the Bookies Are Thinking
(Note: Odds are illustrative examples only and will fluctuate dramatically between now and November 2025. Always check your preferred bookmaker for live prices.)
At this early stage, the bookmakers have installed Australia as firm favourites. Here’s a rough guide to what you can expect in the futures markets, presented in easy-to-read Decimal odds:
- Series Winner:
- Australia: Around $1.60
- Draw: Around $5.00
- England: Around $4.50
- Top Australia Series Run-Scorer:
- Steve Smith: Around $3.50 (The class act, always a favourite)
- Marnus Labuschagne: Around $4.00 (Loves home conditions, a run-machine)
- Travis Head: Around $6.50 (The aggressor, can change a game in a session)
- Cameron Green: Around $9.00 (If he locks down a top-order spot, great value)
- Top Australia Series Wicket-Taker:
- Pat Cummins: Around $3.00 (The captain, the leader, the strike weapon)
- Mitchell Starc: Around $3.75 (A demon with the new ball and the pink ball)
- Nathan Lyon: Around $4.50 (Will bowl a mountain of overs and take key wickets)
- Josh Hazlewood: Around $5.50 (Metronomic accuracy, relentless pressure)
The Smokies: Where the Real Value Lies
Any mug can back the favourite. The real art is finding value—the players who are flying under the radar but have the game and the circumstances to deliver a monster payout.
Here are a few smoky picks for the Australian squad that could set your betting slip on fire:
1. The All-Rounder Ace: Cameron Green
With a full-time batting spot up for grabs, a matured Cameron Green could be the story of the series. He has the technique to blunt the English attack and the power to tear it apart. His bowling provides a genuine point of difference with extra bounce. At double-figure odds for top run-scorer, he represents serious value.
2. The New Ball Nemesis: Mitchell Starc
While always a threat, Starc is often overshadowed by Cummins in the wicket-taker market. But remember: he takes the new ball, he’s a left-armer (creating a different angle), and he is Australia’s designated pink-ball magician. With two day-night Tests likely, Starc could easily be the leading wicket-taker.
3. The Unassuming Destroyer: Travis Head
England’s “Bazball” strategy is to attack, attack, attack. But what happens when someone attacks them even harder? Enter Travis Head. His counter-punching ability can break bowling attacks and shift momentum in a session. If he gets going, he could pile on runs quickly and be a dark horse for top run-scorer.
4. The Comeback King (The Ultimate Smokey): Will Pucovski
This is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward punt. If Will Pucovski can overcome his injury challenges and find form in the Sheffield Shield, he has the talent to not only claim an opening spot but to dominate. His odds to be top run-scorer would be enormous. He is the definition of a smokey, but one with generational talent.
How to Bet on the Ashes: A Punter’s Playbook
- Shop Around for Odds: Don’t just sign into the first app you see. Different bookmakers will offer slightly different odds on the same player. Use a comparison site to ensure you get the best value.
- Look for Player Specials: As the series gets closer, bookies will offer hundreds of markets: “Man of the Match,” “Most Sixes in a Test,” “A 50 and a wicket in the match.” These are where the fun—and value—often lies.
- Consider In-Play Betting: Test cricket is a long game, and momentum swings wildly. If you’re watching the game, you can often spot a shift before the odds fully reflect it. Is a bowler looking dangerous without luck? Is a batter looking scratchy? In-play betting lets you capitalise on your cricket knowledge in real-time.
- Bet Responsibly: Set a budget. Stick to it. Betting should add to the excitement of the spectacle, not detract from it.
Ready to Back the Baggy Green?
The 2025-26 Ashes series is set to be one for the ages. The narratives, the rivalries, the sheer quality on display—it’s what Test cricket dreams are made of.
Now that you’re armed with the stats, the odds, and a few smoky tips, it’s time to find the perfect platform to place your bets.
Top Betting Australia has done the hard work for you. We compare all the leading Australian betting sites, checking their cricket markets, promotional offers, live streaming services, and cash-out options. We help you find the best bookie to support your Ashes campaign.
Don’t just watch the Ashes, be a part of them.
Click here to visit Top Betting Australia and secure the best odds for the 2025-26 series today!